Predicting future glaucoma candidates

Combined analysis of two clinical glaucoma trials, presented at the American Academy of Ophthalmology annual meeting, suggests that it would be beneficial for ophthalmologists to use a five-year risk assessment model to better predict which patients have an increased risk of developing glaucoma.

In 2005, Robert Weinreb, MD and Filipe Medeiros, MD, constructed a risk assessment model based on findings from the 2002 Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS). This study found that early intervention with IOP lowering medications could prevent glaucoma in at-risk patients. The OHTS prediction model was then tested on patients in the placebo group of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS), a study that enrolled a total of 1081 subjects at 18 European centres to receive either dorzolamide or placebo. The OHTS arm of the study examined 819 subjects with a median follow-up of every six months for 6.6 years. The EGPS placebo group examined 500 subjects with a median follow-up of every six months for 4.8 years. The two study samples were pooled to increase the precision of a five-year predictive model for the development of POAG.

Analysis of the results found that subjects with elevated IOP along with other risk factors such as age (40 years old +), are at the highest risk of developing POAG. The researchers believe that the five-year risk assessment model will dramatically help reduce the number of subjects going on to development this disease.